South Asia at a Tipping Point: Bangladesh’s Political Crisis and India’s Strategic Moves

 South Asia is currently at a critical juncture, with Bangladesh witnessing rising tensions between the military and student protesters. Meanwhile, India is playing its strategic game masterfully.

Bangladesh’s Growing Unrest

The situation in Bangladesh is deteriorating, with student leader Hasnat Abdullah and his radical faction—allegedly backed by Pakistan’s ISI—declaring an open war against the government. The crisis is escalating, and major global powers like the U.S., Israel, and India are growing increasingly concerned.

The anti-Hasina and anti-Awami League sentiments in Bangladesh were expected, but the moment these protests turned against global leaders like PM Modi, Ajit Doval, Donald Trump, and Benjamin Netanyahu, it became an entirely different game. The situation is slipping out of Bangladesh’s control.

India’s Calculated Chess Moves

India had anticipated the growing unrest in Bangladesh but chose not to intervene directly. Instead, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval recently held a high-level intelligence meeting in New Delhi with top security officials, discussing key agendas:

• Breaking the Khalistan network in the West
• Countering Pakistan’s ISI-backed radicalization efforts in Afghanistan, India, and Bangladesh
• Preventing the spread of extremist ideology in South Asia

Following this, former U.S. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard made a strong statement, directly blaming Pakistan for spreading radicalization in Bangladesh. This led to international tensions, particularly when the French Embassy in Dhaka tweeted criticism against her statement. The backlash resulted in the firing of three Bangladeshi employees at the embassy.

Global Backlash Against Bangladesh’s Radicalization

Western think tanks and media are increasingly portraying Bangladesh as the next Afghanistan. Articles from international policy institutes highlight the country’s descent into chaos, pushing it into a difficult diplomatic position. Michael Rubin, a prominent analyst, has even warned that Bangladesh has limited time to choose between democracy and anarchy.

Bangladesh’s radicalization is further reflected in shocking images where Indian, Israeli, and American flags are being desecrated in public spaces—an alarming sign of growing anti-India and anti-West sentiments.

America Sidelines Pakistan

A major geopolitical shift is also underway in South Asia. The U.S. has stopped relying on Pakistan as a mediator and is now engaging directly with the Taliban in Afghanistan. This move cuts off Pakistan’s strategic leverage and weakens its influence over regional affairs.

Furthermore, the U.S. has removed the $10 million bounty on a key Taliban leader, indicating a shift in its approach to Afghanistan. Pakistan, which previously acted as a middleman, is now being sidelined in favor of direct diplomacy with the Taliban.

China’s Role and Bangladesh’s Internal Crisis

As the crisis deepens, Yunus, a key Bangladeshi political figure, is attempting to gain China’s support. Speculation suggests he may seek financial backing from Beijing in exchange for strategic concessions. However, China typically prefers dealing with governments in power rather than opposition figures like Yunus.

At the same time, India’s ruling ideological organization, RSS, has taken a firm stance, declaring that Bangladesh’s Hindu population is India’s responsibility. This could push India toward a more assertive policy regarding the protection of minorities in Bangladesh.

The Military’s Role and the Risk of Civil War

With tensions rising, the Bangladeshi military has deployed heavily in key areas, fearing attacks from radical mobs. Intelligence suggests that mobs may storm cantonments, directly targeting the military. The student protesters have even labeled the military chief as an "Indian agent," further destabilizing the situation.

Prominent voices in Bangladesh’s opposition, such as exiled activist Pinaki Bhattacharya, are actively calling for the removal of military and government leadership. The crisis has now turned into a three-way conflict between the military, radical student protesters, and Yunus’s democratic opposition.

The Future of Bangladesh and South Asia

The situation in Bangladesh is heading toward a dangerous crossroad. While Yunus initially aligned with the student protesters, he is now urging restraint, fearing international backlash. The internal divide between pro-Pakistan radicals and pro-Western democrats has weakened the opposition’s unity.

As Bangladesh struggles with internal chaos, India, the U.S., and Israel are watching closely, prepared to act if the crisis escalates further.